Today’s track: Somebody That I Used To Know — Gotye feat. Kimbra (the 2021 market: now just somebody you used to know)

I pulled the July numbers this week the way I always do — inventory first, because that’s the one I watch like a sports score.

2,136.

Last July it was 1,635. Same city, same MLS, same month on the calendar. Thirty-one percent more homes for sale. Inventory didn’t creep back this summer. It walked in the front door and put its feet on the couch.

Then I pulled the median price, expecting it to flinch.

$287,750. A twelve-month high. Up 2.8% from last July.

Both things are true at once, and that argument is the whole story of this market right now.

Sellers collected 99.0% of their final asking price in July — identical to a year ago. Sounds like nothing changed. But against the original asking price, sellers netted 97.8%. That 1.2-point gap is where the price cuts live.

The market still pays full price. It just stopped paying your first price.

And the demand side is where it gets interesting. New listings hit 1,578 — the busiest listing month in a year. Pendings went the other way: 782, down 16.5% from June. Sellers showed up to the party. Buyers looked at rates, looked at the buffet, and decided they could take their time.

And that is not a one-month wobble. Year to date we have put 17,317 new listings on the market against 15,082 by this point last year — up 14.8%. Closings: 10,020 against 9,595, up 4.4%. Supply is growing more than three times faster than demand is absorbing it.

Last week said the same thing in miniature. 518 new listings, basically flat against last year’s 523. But only 277 sales, against 347 a year ago. Same sellers walking in. A fifth fewer buyers walking out.

Months of supply: 2.61. Most breathing room in a year. Six is balanced. We’re not close — but the direction flipped, and direction is what markets trade on. I told you the squeeze had an expiration date.

Kentucky REALTORS’ statewide July report landed this week. State median: $288,000. Ours: $287,750. We’re $250 apart and living in completely different markets — statewide, closed sales fell about 31% and supply sits at 5.78 months. Balanced, by the book. Louisville closed 2% MORE homes than last July on 2.61 months. The rest of the Commonwealth already crossed the balance line. We’re still less than half-supplied. And here’s the line from that report nobody is repeating: statewide new listings fell 29.4% from last July. Ours hit a twelve-month high. Kentucky sellers are sitting down. Louisville sellers are standing up.

So when someone asks why 31% more inventory doesn’t scare me, that’s the answer. We’re normalizing toward a line the rest of the state already crossed — from the tight side of it.

Now zoom all the way out. NAHB’s Q2 Cost of Housing Index says a family earning the national median income of $106,800 needs 34% of it to cover the payment on a median-priced new home. Thirty-six percent on an existing one. A low-income family needs 71%. Their chief economist pins the shortage behind it at roughly 1.2 million units.

Then look at the price tag. The national median existing home sold for $434,100 in July. Ours sold for $287,750. That is thirty-four percent under the national median — same month, same rates, same economy. National sales fell 1.7% year over year. We closed 2% more.

The affordability crisis everyone is writing about is real. It just isn’t landing here with the same weight. That is the whole reason our inventory can climb 31% and our median can still touch a twelve-month high in the same breath.

What do you do with all this?

Buying: the relief isn’t coming as lower prices. It’s coming as options. More houses, 26 days instead of 22, actual room to sleep on a decision. Take the options.

Selling: still your market by the math. But price it right in week one. The market pays for precision now. It stopped paying for hope around Derby time.

Investing: 782 pendings against 1,578 new listings is a spread, and it widens every week a listing sits. This fall is planting season. Put out the fishing lines. Write the offers that feel slightly embarrassing. The market everyone said was frozen.

One bold call before I let you go: by Derby week 2027, Louisville crosses three months of supply for the first time in years — and the median still touches $300,000 by next summer anyway. Both at once. Nobody rings a bell when the leverage shifts. You just have to be at the table.

📊 Yesterday's poll: Would if the deal was right led the “would you ever buy a foreclosure?” poll with 17 of 29 votes (58.62%) — 11 of you said you already have. Too much hassle got zero votes. Zero. And one honest soul said they scare me — fair.

Today's poll:

The Top Five is ready as always — five real deals on the Louisville MLS this morning, five ripe for a lowball, my math on every one. Reply “FIVE” if you want today’s.

With Enthusiasm,
Rob Bergeron

Owner–Realtor at Award-Winning Winner Realty
Winner Realty | OffMarket.deals | Property Partner Data Company

Schedule time to discuss your goals, bottlenecks, or whatever’s on your mind — book me here.

The Morning Bergeron daily track playlist

PS: Inventory is sitting at 4,092. Starting to see listings stack up. I’d get things listed sooner than later. Now is a good time to pick up a larger flip or BRRRR. Fix it up during the winter and have it ready for Spring! All currently available 5 bedroom properties under $350,000. All currently available multifamily properties. All currently available Winner Realty offerings.

PSS: This weekend my sister Katie and my brother-in-law Chris spent 14-16 work hours helping me set up a robot lawn mower (Slingblade). I want to thank them for all their effort — it was truly a labor of love. I personally laid down 75 bags of mulch, seven bags of white rock, and four bags of pea gravel. I’ve been very fortunate to feel great through all of this. Round five of twelve begins today — nearly halfway there. Thanks again for all your support!