Today's track: Frank Sinatra — CAKE
I'm not from Louisville originally, so Derby was a culture shock when I moved here. And I mean that in the best possible way.
This city lights up. Kids get out of school. Everyone gets their landscaping done — like there's some unspoken deadline and every yard in Jefferson County knows it. People who've lived here their whole lives have Derby memories the way other people have Christmas memories. It's woven into everything.
And it's genuinely one of the most exciting things about living here — that once a year, the whole world looks at Louisville, and Louisville gets to say this is us.
Unfortunately, looks like we're getting some rain this year. That always stings a little. This is our moment to show the world what we've got, and we'll be doing it in mud. But that's Derby. That's Louisville. You show up anyway.
Here's something worth sitting with while we're on the subject. Derby Week 2026 runs eight days — April 25 through May 2. The economic impact estimates land between $400 and $440 million for the city. Not the race. The week. Hotels, restaurants, retailers, short-term rentals — the entire city becomes the venue. Churchill Downs has roughly 60,000 seats, but the money doesn't stay inside those gates. It spreads across Louisville in one of the most compressed spending windows of any sporting event in the country.
If you have short-term rental inventory in Louisville, this week is a 10x rent moment.
One more thing Derby does — and this one matters if you're watching the market: people list after Derby. Consistently. The weather's turning, the yards are already done, the city's energy is up. It's the traditional starting gun for spring inventory. Which means the market that's already at 3,347 available properties is about to get bigger. I think we could realistically push toward 3,500 in the next few weeks.
Here's why that number keeps climbing. The math isn't complicated — more listings are coming in than deals are closing.
The Numbers — April 19–25
Listings this week: 649 — up from 518 the same week last year. That's a 25% jump. Year-to-date listings are at 8,061, up from 6,657 at this point in 2025. That's 21% more inventory hitting the market this year.
Solds this week: 239 — down from 308 the same week last year. Year-to-date closings: 4,034, essentially flat with 2025’s 4,127.
More coming in. Same amount selling. Inventory builds. That's the math behind the pile-up.
Back in 2019, inventory sat around 2,100. We're 59% above that right now. Of the current 3,347 available, 1,152 have been on the market for sixty-plus days. And 535 have been sitting for over a hundred and twenty.
Think about what that feels like on the seller's end. You listed with optimism. Maybe you had a showing or two. And then — nothing. Weeks of silence. Carrying costs ticking up. Motivation shifting.
Multifamily is where it gets especially interesting. Two months ago there were 90 available. We're at 123 now. Of those, 50 have been on market sixty-plus days, and 26 have been sitting for a hundred and twenty. Nearly a quarter of the entire multifamily inventory is in the deep-stale bucket.
Rates are sitting at 6.09% right now — and that matters more than it sounds. On April 2nd, we were at 6.46%. That drop changes the math for buyers who've been sitting on the fence. There's still a buyer pool. There are still deals to be made.
Which is exactly why now is the time to be making offers.
We don't know what the urgency level is for any of these sellers. But we might be the only person who's touched them in weeks. That matters. An LOI that comes in today — even if it gets a polite no — plants a seed. Maybe urgency goes up in thirty days. Maybe ninety. Maybe they turn around and need to sell that house so they can buy their next one. You got in front of them while everyone else was waiting for the "perfect" moment.
The perfect moment is when 535 people have been sitting on a property for over four months and still haven't found their buyer.
If you want to start putting offers in front of this inventory, reply and let's get moving. Give me your buy box and your proof of funds, and I'll get LOIs out. That's the whole setup. Life rewards action.
Warmly,
Rob Bergeron
Owner–Realtor at Award-Winning Winner Realty
OffMarket.deals | Property Partner Data Company